您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-06-13 19:55:02 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
涨停揭秘 | 美邦服饰首板涨停,封板资金383.3万元2025-06-13 20:07
华铁应急收盘涨8.78%,主力资金净流入8596.16万元2025-06-13 19:50
比特币平台建设2025-06-13 19:38
10月31日汇添富社会责任混合C净值下跌1.15%,近1个月累计下跌4.29%2025-06-13 19:31
川大智胜:股票交易异常波动2025-06-13 19:31
虚拟货币钱包芝麻交易所web3版本下载-芝麻交易所web3钱包官方授权版v6.3.1下载2025-06-13 18:55
盛通股份收盘涨9.97%,主力资金净流入7759.89万元2025-06-13 18:54
英飞特:公司总经理因退休离任2025-06-13 18:45
利润总额怎么算出来的?2025-06-13 18:36
赋能文化出海,共创社会价值,三七互娱的技术向善之道2025-06-13 17:57
基金不如股票-基金不如股票吗为什么2025-06-13 20:17
思瑞浦:创芯微并购项目已完成100%股权过户,公司第三季度研发费用约1.36亿元2025-06-13 20:16
火币大咖2025-06-13 19:54
诚迈科技收盘跌5.93%,主力资金净流出4.41亿元2025-06-13 19:45
请问广发车主卡存款提现收费吗?车主卡怎么样?2025-06-13 19:42
OKX|欧义交易所注册及操作指南2025-06-13 19:41
黄金正努力摆脱“双顶形态”压制2025-06-13 19:25
太极股份收盘涨5.31%,主力资金净流入4609.85万元2025-06-13 19:23
关于天气白云什么什么2025-06-13 18:46
上海沪工收盘涨1.5%,主力资金净流出2643.55万元2025-06-13 17:58